Freight is no longer a line you can fix once a year. For importers of Brazilian fruit and coffee in Europe, 2026 has shown how quickly fuel costs and routing decisions in distant chokepoints reach the landed cost. This article looks at what is moving, and how contract terms decide who pays.
Freight data is volatile, so every figure below carries its date and source. Treat them as a snapshot, not a forecast.
Important caveat: these are Asia-origin benchmarks. They show direction and volatility, not Brazil–Europe prices. Reefer and coffee dry-container rates from Santos, Itajaí or Pecém have their own supply and demand, so always ask carriers for lane-specific quotes.
Carriers increasingly split the price into base freight plus surcharges that can be revised monthly or quarterly. A bunker adjustment factor (BAF) follows fuel prices, so a stable base rate can hide a rising total. For reefers the exposure is larger: the container is also powered and monitored for the whole voyage.
Fuel remains the main variable. Lloyd's List Intelligence reported on 30 September 2026 that very low sulphur fuel oil and high sulphur gasoil prices were back at early-April levels, "sharply higher than pre-crisis levels", after a brief dip tied to a US–Iran memorandum of understanding. Freightos noted in early October that bunker prices were roughly level over recent weeks, even as crude eased.
Hormuz works mainly through fuel. Lloyd's List Intelligence's 30 September brief shows traffic recovering, with 117 transits in the week of 14–20 September, yet major container lines still avoid the area and security incidents continue. For a Brazil–Europe shipper the effect is indirect: energy and bunker costs, not a rerouted voyage.
The Red Sea works mainly through capacity. Freightos reported in early October that carriers are gradually returning to Suez, with the Premier Alliance saying some services would resume Red Sea transits, while regional tensions remain elevated. Xeneta warned in January 2026 that a large-scale return could cause months of interim disruption and port congestion as schedules adjust. Brazil–Europe cargo does not normally use Suez, but Asia–Europe capacity released or tied up there changes vessel deployment and rates across trades.
This is not about documents. It is about who pays when the number changes.
A fixed CIF price is only as safe as the seller's margin. If fuel jumps, a seller may press for renegotiation, delay bookings or favour other buyers. A low CIF price in a rising market is not always a bargain.
Separate perishable and shelf-stable cargo. Fresh fruit has little tolerance for delay, so reliability and transit time can be worth more than the cheapest rate. Coffee is more flexible and can justify longer booking windows and index-linked deals.
Build landed cost as a model with freight as a range, not a point. Compare your quoted price against the latest index each month, and document the date of every quote. Ask suppliers to show freight and surcharges as separate lines even under CIF, so adjustments are transparent.
Finally, keep options open: more than one carrier, more than one port pair, and a contract that allows a fair reset instead of forcing a dispute. Trivalli can help structure these terms and source quotes on your Brazil–Europe lanes.
