Brazil is harvesting the largest coffee crop on record, yet arabica futures have not collapsed. For European importers and roasters planning 2026/27 cover, that mismatch is the central contracting problem: the supply story points down, while price levels, low exchange stocks and producer behaviour keep physical coffee expensive and sometimes hard to source on time.
Official and private estimates differ, but all point to a record. Conab's latest survey (24 September 2026) puts the 2026/27 crop at 67.6 million bags, up 19.6% year on year, with arabica at 48.2 million and conilon at 19.4 million. USDA FAS, in its June Coffee Annual, forecasts 71.9 million bags (arabica 47.5 million, robusta 24.4 million), with exports of 49.07 million bags. StoneX raised its estimate to 77.2 million bags in early September, from 75.3 million in March.
The gap between Conab and the private houses is about 10 million bags. Buyers should treat it as a range, not a disagreement to be resolved.
Rabobank expects arabica to normalise gradually within US$2.50-3.00/lb over the medium term, not to fall sharply. Prices have been volatile: StoneX described futures at 19-month lows in June, then arabica jumped almost 10% in one session in early July to above $3/lb on slow harvest progress and El Niño concerns, according to the Rio Times. On 2 September, December arabica closed at 297.43 cents/lb, after failing three times to hold above 317 cents.
Three factors keep the physical market tight despite the crop size:
Storage is a counterweight: StoneX noted in September that, with the harvest 97% complete, storage constraints were starting to push producers toward earlier sales.
The following is Trivalli's practical view, not a forecast. With a record crop and high flat price, the most useful decision is not whether to buy, but how to split price risk, premium risk and timing risk.
A record volume does not mean every lot is available. Specialty and certified lots, and specific profiles, can still carry firm premiums while commercial grades soften. Ask sellers for clear terms on screen size, defects, cup profile and certification, and fix the reference sample before shipment. Avoid agreeing differentials that depend on undefined market conditions.
Rather than picking a single price view, it helps to test a contracting plan against three simple cases. These are planning scenarios, not predictions.
A staggered programme does not beat the market in every case, but it avoids the worst outcome in each of them. For most importers and roasters, that is the more realistic goal.
In a market where sellers hold stock and wait, relationships matter. Share your volume forecast, tell suppliers when you intend to fix, and ask for the same transparency on availability and loading dates. Suppliers who can document origin, lot traceability and shipping schedules early give buyers more room to plan, and they reduce disputes when prices move sharply between signing and shipment.
The next flowering period, El Niño weather risk, the real, and further Conab and USDA updates will shape the 2027/28 outlook. Producers who hold coffee may sell quickly if prices dip or storage runs short, so the premium for patience can disappear quickly. Buyers who contract in stages keep room to adjust.
If you want to discuss structuring a green coffee programme for 2026/27, contact the Trivalli team.
