Europe's autumn mango supply is thinner than most buyers planned for. El Niño has hit flowering in Peru, rains have cut Ecuador's crop, and Mexico is finished for the year. The gap lands on Brazil's Vale do São Francisco, which is already shipping record volumes. This article sets out what the published numbers show and what buyers should lock in for October to December.
Peru's Kent crop is the main concern. Trade reports from August put open bloom at only about 20% in Piura, 10% in Lambayeque and 45% in Áncash, with unusually high minimum temperatures blocking natural flowering. One Peruvian exporter expects production to fall by around 60%. Export availability is estimated at 80,000–100,000 tonnes, against 240,000 tonnes last season.
Timing also matters. Peru's season was projected to start in week 40 (first week of October) and run to week 2 of 2027, but other trade reporting places the main shipping window from November to March. In practice, expect a short, low-volume start and a later peak.
Ecuador is the second gap. A trader quoted in late September expects at least a 50% cut in volume, and the latest crop projection is about 6.6 million boxes, roughly 52% below last year. Shipments were expected to run from the third week of September into early January. A Brazilian exporter also put Ecuador's production loss at about 50%.
Mexico has little left to offer. Trade reports in late August described its season as essentially finished, with little product available from that origin.
Brazil comes into the window with momentum. Datamar reported that São Francisco Valley mango exports rose nearly 40% in the first half of 2026 to more than 120,000 tonnes, as part of the strongest first-half fruit export result since the Comex Stat series began in 1997. Fruitnet reported that mango export value grew 69% and volume 50% in the first quarter.
Supply from Brazil is not unlimited, however. One large exporter reported anthracnose problems in May and June and said about 20% of its flowering was still pending in late August, running at roughly 80% of capacity. His summary: "We have mango, but not as much as we thought we would have from July onwards." Keitt and Palmer are the main varieties for Europe, while Tommy Atkins goes mostly to the United States. The U.S. buying window also runs through the end of November, so Brazil is serving two demanding markets at once.
In late August, Brazilian fruit in Europe was quoted at:
The same market overview put the Netherlands range at €6–8 for a 4 kg box and Spanish fruit at €11–12 at the start of its season, expected to ease towards €8–9. A Brazilian exporter expects European prices to exceed €9 in November and December. Those are early-season quotes and one exporter's forecast, not a guarantee, so treat €7–9 as a planning range rather than a contract price.
The market is also volatile. In the U.S., mango prices moved from $5–6 per box in late August to just above $10 by week 38, and traders describe the market as highly sensitive to weekly supply changes. Europe can behave the same way when arrivals bunch up or thin out.
The data points in one direction: reduced supply from Peru, Ecuador and Mexico, strong Brazilian exports, and prices likely to hold in a €7–9 range with upside later in the year. The window favours buyers who commit early and write clear specifications. At Trivalli we work with Brazilian growers and shippers on exactly these programmes, so contact our team if you want to discuss volumes for the coming weeks.
